Rumors of an earthquake in Pakistan: Is it possible to predict earthquakes?

After the earthquake that occurred in Turkey and Syria on Monday, rumors were also circulating on Pakistani social media that after the earthquake in Turkey, an earthquake of the same magnitude may occur in Pakistan soon.

It should be noted that around 16,000 people have died in this earthquake so far and the authorities are fearing more deaths.

According to the US Geological Survey, the earthquake had a magnitude of 7.8 and a depth of 17.9 km.

Seismologists say it was one of the biggest earthquakes ever to hit Turkey, and survivors say the ground shook for two minutes.

At the same time, a tweet made by a researcher from the Netherlands, Frank Hogerbets, is also circulating on social media, in which he said on February 3 that sooner or later an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 will hit this region (South and Central Turkey, Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon) will wreak havoc.

So, just three days after this tweet, after an earthquake of almost the same magnitude struck the region, people are questioning whether earthquakes can be predicted.

Apart from this, another tweet was made by his organization on January 30 in which he showed the possibility of increasing geological activity in several areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan besides Bangladesh and China.

It was said that there is a possibility of intense geological activity in or near the areas with these purple bands for the next one to six days and it was also said that the areas outside these bands are not excluded from this possibility.

So soon after that, rumors started circulating on Pakistani social media that Pakistan could be the next target of the earthquake, and many people, including this organization, appeared on Frank’s Twitter timeline, asking if he could specifically talk about earthquakes in Pakistan. Talk about the possibility of

However, late on Wednesday night, the Pakistan Meteorological Department rejected these rumors and said that there is always a possibility of earthquakes in Pakistan, but they cannot be predicted.

The Meteorological Department said that there is no direct connection between the fault lines in Pakistan and Turkey which could also cause earthquakes in Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan.

According to the department, there is always a possibility of a major earthquake in Pakistan and its neighboring countries, but when and where they will occur is beyond the capabilities of current technology.

Can the rotation of planets detect earthquakes?

Frank Hogerbets claims that the position of the planets in the sky can cause earthquakes.

However, there is a consensus in the scientific community that there is currently no method of predicting earthquakes in science, and according to them, no such method is seen to be developed in the future.

The U.S. Geological Survey is one of the world’s leading earthquake monitoring and research organizations, and the agency says it and no other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake.

According to the institute, we still do not know how to make predictions, but only the probability can be calculated, how much is the probability of a large earthquake occurring in such and such an area in such a year.

According to the Geological Survey, three things are important in earthquake prediction, namely time and date, location, and magnitude. If a ‘forecast’ does not provide all three of these things, it will be considered a false forecast.

Frank Hogerbets, who is associated with the Solar System Geometry Survey, regularly examines the positions of the planets to give some clues as to where geologic activity might be observed.

It should be noted that before this earthquake in Turkey, when this organization released a video, they called for an increase in geological activity in the area between Western China, Pakistan, Afghanistan, India and Eastern China, but in Turkey No date was given for the probability of an earthquake, so it cannot be called a ‘prediction’ according to the US Geological Survey and scientists are convinced of the difference between ‘probability’ and ‘prediction’ of an earthquake.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, several recent research studies have shown that there is a link between the moon’s rise in land surface and ocean tides and some types of earthquakes, but the resulting increase in likelihood. , it is still extremely rare.

Similarly, according to the Berkeley University of America, the location of astronomical objects does not have any significant effect on the rate of earthquakes and the movement of tectonic plates.

Various methods are being worked on to predict earthquakes, including observing the behavior of animals before an earthquake and predicting an earthquake based on that. Some studies have found a connection between them, but still the scientific community has not reached a definitive and solid conclusion in this regard, so the movement of animals to safe havens is still not scientifically proven.

Are there any preemptive measures that can be taken?

A journalist, Ilya Tupper, responded to Frank Hogerbets, saying that the only way to prevent damage from an earthquake is to build safe buildings, not for authorities to keep asking people to stay out of their homes for months and years at a time.

It should be noted that in the year 2009, more than 300 people were killed in a terrible earthquake in the city of La Aquila, Italy, after which six scientists and a government official were prosecuted for having done so despite the threat of an earthquake. Due to which many people died.

The trial lasted seven years, after which all the men were released, but it shows how difficult it is to predict earthquakes, either because such predictions can cause chaos or if they are wrong. Otherwise, people may develop an unfounded sense of security.

And even if a prediction does indeed prove correct, there will still be a need for evacuation plans and earthquake-proof buildings.

US Geological Survey scientist Susan Ho says that ‘if you want to create resistance and protection against earthquakes, you should estimate the risk and earthquake movement and build buildings accordingly, this is the best use of money. Will be.’

By Shahab

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